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Summary
SPDN is not the largest or oldest way to short the S&P 500, but it’s a solid choice.
This ETF uses a variety of financial instruments to target a return opposite that of the S&P 500 Index.
SPDN’s 0.49% Expense Ratio is nearly half that of the larger, longer-tenured -1x Inverse S&P 500 ETF.
Details aside, the potential continuation of the equity bear market makes single-inverse ETFs an investment segment investor should be familiar with.
We rate SPDN a Strong Buy because we believe the risks of a continued bear market greatly outweigh the possibility of a quick return to a bull market.
Put a gear stick into R position, (Reverse).
Birdlkportfolio

By Rob Isbitts

Summary
The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and we don’t see a quick-fix. Many investors assume the only way to navigate a potentially long-term bear market is to hide in cash, day-trade or “just hang in there” while the bear takes their retirement nest egg.

The Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X ETF (NYSEARCA:SPDN) is one of a class of single-inverse ETFs that allow investors to profit from down moves in the stock market.

SPDN is an unleveraged, liquid, low-cost way to either try to hedge an equity portfolio, profit from a decline in the S&P 500, or both. We rate it a Strong Buy, given our concern about the intermediate-term outlook for the global equity market.

Strategy
SPDN keeps it simple. If the S&P 500 goes up by X%, it should go down by X%. The opposite is also expected.

Proprietary ETF Grades
Offense/Defense: Defense

Segment: Inverse Equity

Sub-Segment: Inverse S&P 500

Correlation (vs. S&P 500): Very High (inverse)

Expected Volatility (vs. S&P 500): Similar (but opposite)

Holding Analysis
SPDN does not rely on shorting individual stocks in the S&P 500. Instead, the managers typically use a combination of futures, swaps and other derivative instruments to create a portfolio that consistently aims to deliver the opposite of what the S&P 500 does.

Strengths
SPDN is a fairly “no-frills” way to do what many investors probably wished they could do during the first 9 months of 2022 and in past bear markets: find something that goes up when the “market” goes down. After all, bonds are not the answer they used to be, commodities like gold have, shall we say, lost their luster. And moving to cash creates the issue of making two correct timing decisions, when to get in and when to get out. SPDN and its single-inverse ETF brethren offer a liquid tool to use in a variety of ways, depending on what a particular investor wants to achieve.

Weaknesses
The weakness of any inverse ETF is that it does the opposite of what the market does, when the market goes up. So, even in bear markets when the broader market trend is down, sharp bear market rallies (or any rallies for that matter) in the S&P 500 will cause SPDN to drop as much as the market goes up.

Opportunities
While inverse ETFs have a reputation in some circles as nothing more than day-trading vehicles, our own experience with them is, pardon the pun, exactly the opposite! We encourage investors to try to better-understand single inverse ETFs like SPDN. While traders tend to gravitate to leveraged inverse ETFs (which actually are day-trading tools), we believe that in an extended bear market, SPDN and its ilk could be a game-saver for many portfolios.

Threats
SPDN and most other single inverse ETFs are vulnerable to a sustained rise in the price of the index it aims to deliver the inverse of. But that threat of loss in a rising market means that when an investor considers SPDN, they should also have a game plan for how and when they will deploy this unique portfolio weapon.

Proprietary Technical Ratings
Short-Term Rating (next 3 months): Strong Buy

Long-Term Rating (next 12 months): Buy

Conclusions
ETF Quality Opinion
SPDN does what it aims to do, and has done so for over 6 years now. For a while, it was largely-ignored, given the existence of a similar ETF that has been around much longer. But the more tenured SPDN has become, the more attractive it looks as an alternative.

ETF Investment Opinion

SPDN is rated Strong Buy because the S&P 500 continues to look as vulnerable to further decline. And, while the market bottomed in mid-June, rallied, then waffled since that time, our proprietary macro market indicators all point to much greater risk of a major decline from this level than a fast return to bull market glory. Thus, SPDN is at best a way to exploit and attack the bear, and at worst a hedge on an otherwise equity-laden portfolio.

You must have heard many news like – market dropped due to some political upheaval in the middle east or the market soared due to some referendum in Europe. In the age of globalisation, all the markets and businesses across the world are intertwined, hence any geopolitical event has the potential to move the global markets.But where does that leave the investors? What should be their ideal approach to counter such uncertain situations? The good news is – whether markets fall or rise, it’s an opportunity for the investors. Here’s how.Investors In The Market CycleThe reason we say that whether market falls or rises, it’s always an opportunity for the investor is because if the market falls, all the stocks on your watch-list, most likely, will be in the buying range. And when the market rises, it’s a perfect point for you to sell the stocks which have reached their target price.The key point is – if you have a long-term perspective in stock investment, it will be your armour against all the uncertainties of the stock market.Let’s take a look at the market phases which comprises the market cycle.The Bear MarketThe bear market is a market condition where the prices of the securities fall considerably and the market goes through a significant downturn. In such situations there is widespread pessimism about stock prices and a lot of panic selling takes place which further escalates the downturn.Though it’s a nature of the market to swing up and down, intraday traders and short-term investors, who deal in huge quantities, have no other option but to sell their holdings to minimise their losses.However, long-term investors have an advantage in this phase, as they can choose to hold their stocks while they also have an alternative to average their existing stocks and buy new stocks. Always remember, the bear market is a perfect opportunity to enter the market and build a robust portfolio.Market Accumulation Phase (Consolidation)This phase takes place after the markets have hit the bottom and some value investors think that the market situations is good to buy as the worst is over. Valuations of stocks are very attractive in this phase while the market sentiment is still bearish. Which makes it an ideal time to enter the market. In the accumulation phase, prices are flat, as the disillusioned sellers start selling while the wise investors pick it up at a healthy discount. Owing to such turn of events, market starts to pick up.To get through such phases, investors should just be patient and hold their stocks. Giving in to your impulse of selling stocks due to continuous consolidation will only bring you losses. It’s just a phase which passes sooner or later.The Bull MarketThe bull market simply means that the market is on its upward drift. The market index goes high and all the major stocks start soaring. This is the phase investors invest for. One thing investors should ensure while going through this phase is that it’s not a buying period, it’s the time to review your portfolio and sell stocks which have reached their target price. In a way, all the investment, and calculated risks you take while the market was down pays off when you reach this phase. If you make the right choices, you will be handsomely rewarded.